Will the Chrome be Shiny?

Dear Partners and Friends,

Thirty Six years. Affirmed; the last Triple Crown winner.  Will we see another Saturday?  Thought you would enjoy the thoughts from some of our past Donegal handicapping winners:

The loveliest past winner in a walk, MARY JO ADAMS, had this to say:

"The quiet, gentle confidence of California Chrome has impressed me throughout this racing season. He is a yogi of a horse and I wouldn't be surprised if he practices meditation in his stall. He is focused, has an attitude for winning, and has shown an ability to improve. Victor Espinoza and California Chrome have a Zen-like chemistry that is hard to define, but clear to see. Certainly, the Belmont will be his toughest challenge with the most talented field by far. I am a loyal fan of California Chrome. I hope he runs safely and well and wins the Triple Crown." 

I know that the wonderful handicappers and horse lovers that are part of the Donegal Contest will have a range of fine selections.  However, no matter which horse they choose, I'd wager that a little piece of their hearts will be rooting for California Chrome.   If successful, his achievement will be wonderful for the sport of horse racing.

Editor's note: I have read nothing about California Chrome anywhere in the Equine press said as well about why Chrome is attractive as the above offering from Mary Jo.

Our Atlanta based legal eagle KEITH MASON agrees with Mary Jo and says:

"California Chrome will make history on Saturday and raise the level of participation and excitement for horse racing in the US. I hope it will inspire more support among young people."

Donegal COO CONOR FOLEY agrees:

"The race sets up well for California Chrome. He has surprised me in the first two jewels of the Triple Crown and I am hoping he surprises me again. His two biggest threats are how fast they run the opening six furlongs and Tonalist. I think Wicked Strong will also stand a chance if they go too fast early. I hope we get to witness history; a tiny miracle will have occurred if he wins."

Esteemed national handicapping contest winner MATT BENTON offers these thoughts:

"I won't be betting Chrome but he is the deserving favorite.  If I had to pick one horse most likely to win it would be him and I will be rooting for him.  That said, the odds require looking elsewhere and I have landed on Medal Count.  He will move forward off his last race where he had tons of trouble at the Derby. I think you have to consider Wicked Strong and Commissioner as well."

Are we all front runners here at Donegal? Not so much!

Beloved and fast recovering RAY SMITH decides to forgo chalk for once with this selection:

"WICKED STRONG is my selection because a troubled yet 4th in Derby, a closing distance pedigree, 34 days off since Derby, a Belmont trainer, and, finally I was so visually impressed with Wicked Strong's Wood victory that I see him coming best of all to pick up the front enders for a Belmont victory."

CONOR CRAWFORD sent along a little more than a paragraph explaining his choice of Ride on Curlin, but it is interesting and so here it is in full:

"I should preface by saying that I really don't like giving my intel away when I still hope to make money in this competition! My pick for the Belmont - and for my Third Triple Crown race in a row - is RIDE ON CURLIN. And my rationale is simple: he is the only horse with enough stamina that has a pattern conducive to winning the Belmont. Ride on Curlin is by Curlin, sire of last year's Belmont winner Palace Malice. Curlin himself is bred on the extraordinary stamina cross of Smart Strike / Deputy Minister, bringing the most powerful stamina resources to bear from America's Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer bloodlines respectively. To top it off, he is in bred to Mr. P by way of Seeking the Gold - one of my favorite stamina influences - on the graddam side. Ride on Curlin has exceeded even Palace Malice in the build-up to this race. He performed admirably at two, and has really flattered our Donegal runners retrospectively since their performance in the Iroquois. He has hit the board in every graded stake of 2014, and I thought he would move forward and win the Derby. 

Now, to say something exceedingly controversial: A legitimate argument can be made that it is Ride on Curlin, and not California Chrome, who should be contending for a Triple Crown. Watch the Kentucky Derby again from RoC's perspective. It was one of my top 5 all-time bad rides. Nonetheless, the horse closed like a freight train to 7th with the second fastest final furlong of the race. I argue that RoC DID move forward into form in the Derby, but we were blinded to it by how bad the ride was. 

That changed in the Preakness, when he closed even faster in that race (see: 13-4 jump on the rags). Compare his closes between races; the Preakness move was clearly an advance and reflective of the horse's progressive form. It helped having Joel in the irons. But even Joel gave the horse a sub-par ride, what with being some 15-20 lengths back at the first turn - absolute DEATH at Pimlico.

RoC is in the capable hands of Johnny V, one of the best pacing jockeys in the world. Johnny loves the track and he knows how to win a Belmont. With only 11 horses and in the 5-hole, RoC won't have any excuse for trouble or failure to get a clear path. The ball is T'ed up perfectly for the boy, and I expect him to come storming home by a three length margin.

As for the others:

Seriously though, the parallels between Chrome and Smarty Jones are eerie. Both are stamina horses that can rate, one of the most powerful mixed-distance types in racing. This is likely the result of what is called in equine genetics "the quarter horse skip gene" unique to America, and eyeballed as early as the 70's by trainers like Lukas and later Baffert. The problem is, these horses can't get a mile and a half. Even with the perfect pace scenario, it is too much for California Chrome. The horse is running through the exertion of two gauntlet races, on a deep and sandy surface, and another 5/16 beyond the Preakness distance. If you thrust a stake down on the Preakness track where RoC and Chrome crossed the 1 1/2 mile point at Pimlico, RoC would have won. I think Chrome's breeding will finally catch up to him. I am convinced of it. The only way this horse can win is if the race blows to pieces or he is a centennial genetic aberration - poor grounds to stake your claim to history on.

Medal Count has the stamina, but I think he got stymied with the one-hole draw. The horse had less trouble at Derby than Chrome - had perfect position on the turn - and failed to kick on with his best stride. I don't think dirt is his best surface, but again, he is one of only a couple in this field with the pedigree to get the job done.

Commanding Curve has an outside shot from a stamina standpoint, but his breeding is very weak on quality - much like Golden Soul, and likely another flash in the pan.

General a Rod has enough stamina on the page, but Mike Maker's has not trained this horse in a way amenable to achieving a 1 1/2 mile distance. He has backed off from gunning early in races like the Fountain of Youth, and in recent stamina contests he has tired. 

Commissioner is perfectly bred for the race, as his cross (AP Indy / Touch Gold) represents a sire and damsire respectively that succeeded in the Test of the Champion. However, the horse has failed to break-through and show any sort of the "second gear" necessary to win a race of this magnitude.

I like Wicked Strong and Tonalist, but neither horse can get the distance. Wicked Strong is by Hard Spun - a horse that has yet to sire a winner at 1 1/4 miles (let alone 1 1/2 miles). Tonalist is by Tapit - a sire that has yet to sire a winner at 1 1/4 miles (let alone 1 1/2 miles). Now, with Charismatic in Wicked Strong's cross, and Pleasant Colony in Tonalist's, these boys have all the help they can get from their dam sides. But sire is too significant. To reiterate, if either of these horses wins, they will be the FIRST of their sire's ENTIRE PROGENY to win at a classic distance. Again, slim grounds to base a bet on - and certainly not when they are seeing more betting activity than RoC right now.

Ride on Curlin is juicy at 12-1. If he can keep at that price, he will be my biggest bet of 2014 thus far. Happy handicapping!"

And finally, yours truly. I am conflicted in what I hope to see tomorrow. We could use a hero in our sport and I am a sucker for the blue collar connections. Give me them over the swells any day. Conversely, Triple Crown Champions should be examples of greatness and I haven't seen greatness in this horse yet. His Preakness win was fine but his Derby, where he staggered home in a closing fraction of 26.3, was awful. 

Because my focus starts and ends with genetics I believe the following horses are bred to run this distance: Medal Count, Ride on Curlin, Commissioner and maybe Wicked Strong. I will use the first three of these on my exacta box and bet Medal Count to win.

Here is a clue of what to watch for: In most Belmonts the first mile and a quarter is run in close to two minutes flat. If this one is-and Chrome is in front-he won't win. If, on the other hand, no one sets a legit pace and Chrome is allowed to gallop along, he could get strong at the end in an otherwise weak field.

Enjoy watching tomorrow because next year we will be in the middle of all this. Again!

Jerry