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Preakness Musings

May 18, 2017

Dear Partners and Friends,

As is our custom we provide some algorithm input on which horses can get the distance in the Preakness.

Before getting to the numbers any discussion of the race has to start with ALWAYS DREAMING. Make no mistake, this colt should win the Preakness. In the last twenty years ten Derby winners have won the Preakness, four have finished second and two have finished third. Translation: ALWAYS DREAMING deserved to be 4-5 morning line.

Sitting just behind him are CLASSIC EMPIRE (3-1) and GUNNAVERA (15-1). Neither of them fired in the Derby the way I expected and I am not in love with them here either.

LOOKING AT LEE impressed with his rail skimming trip and earned strong speed figures for his effort. Can he move forward off that effort? Sure...he can but I am going to be against him.

So who does that leave? Well first of all this is not a good betting race because ALWAYS DREAMING is likely to win and at bad odds. However, we all like to bet the big ones don't we? 

So.....my long shot play is #10 CONQUEST MO MONEY. Why? First, he will be on or near the lead and have no traffic trouble. Second, he has the stamina to last if he shakes free before the turn for home (a big if). Third, he has two extra weeks of rest coming in here and he is more likely to run a new top than the others for that reason. And finally, I just love the breeding. UNLCE MO may just be a star in the making on the sire side and there are only two or three broodmare sires I put in the same category as SEEKING THE GOLD.

And at 15-1.......(who else was just 15-1.....hmmm.....).

Good luck to all!

Jerry

 

Stamina Ranking

88           LOOKING AT LEE

82           TERM OF ART

80           GUNNAVERA

78           HENCE

75           CONQUEST MO MONEY

74           CLOUD COMPUTING

71           ALWAYS DREAMING

62           CLASSIC EMPIRE

51           SENIOR INVESTMENT

44           MULTIPLIER

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