Donegal Racing
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The Manhattan and The Belmont Stakes

May 28, 2015

Dear Partners and Friends, 

Pour an extra cup of coffee because we have work to do today as we look ahead to June 6 and two huge paydays to be fought for in New York. 

Any discussion of these races must start with how the horses are doing. The trainers are making me nervous with how positive they are. 

Immediately after Stephanie (exercise rider for Finn) finished breezing him last week she sent a spontaneous text to Amanda Gillman saying, "Wow, he went soooo good!" Later, Peter Miller weighed in with his enthusiasm for what he saw at the track. One breeze to go and then on the airplane for Finn. 

Meanwhile down in Louisville, Dale Romans tells everyone who will listen that Keen Ice is going to win the Belmont unless American Pharoah is just some kind of freak. And Kent D. says, "When Dale is like that, he usually knows." Here is a video of yesterday's breeze by Ice featuring an 11 4/5ths last fraction. 

I am happy to be able to pass along these trainer reports and want badly to believe them but since I am the more analytical type, I want to share my somewhat more reserved observations as well. 

First the Manhattan: This race looks like a donnybrook with a bunch of the best North American turfers bunched together at the top. The Manhattan is a very rich race with NYRA having just thrown another quarter of a million dollars into this pot raising it to $1,250,000. 

Historically, there are four keys in looking for a horse for the Manhattan: 1) They have earned a prior graded stakes win; 2) They had a winning experience at 1 1/4 miles on the turf; 3) They are coming off a sharp race and 4) They are capable of running a 100 or higher Beyer at distances of 10 furlongs plus. Our own Finn gets a check mark in every box, as do several others. A win in this race would propel Finn to a commanding lead in the Eclipse "Turf Horse of the Year" category. 

The Belmont: This is a fascinating race that I have dissected a hundred ways from Sunday. Being the favorite is a bad thing as only 5 of the last 29 Belmonts have been won by favorites for a paltry 17% (compared to 41% favorite winners in the Preakness, for example). 

Running on the front end (as Pharoah may) is even worse as only TWO winners in the last 29 years have raced on the front end.

The Belmont averages 10 starters compared to 20 in the Derby and yet the winning payoff in the Belmont is the same as in the Derby! Strange things happen when you ask a three year old to run a mile and a half, and if it rains all hell breaks loose. Which is good for us, right? I get excited thinking about being booed by 100,000 rowdy New Yorkers ;)


Many of you have emailed and texted pointing out that we can't come from the very back. And you have a point. Stone cold back of the pack closers only have two wins in the past 29 years. The deeper I have been digging the more apparent it becomes that we need some help to win. The key doesn't appear to be the first quarter mile time, the third quarter mile time or the final quarter mile time. The key is the second quarter mile time. In races where the second quarter was run in 24.2 or slower, horses on or near the front have won 64% of the time (including the only two wire to wire winners in 29 years). In Belmonts where the second quarter has been run in 24.1 or faster, 67% of the winners have been mid-pack or closers. 

It is important to point out we can't force Ice to be more forward than he wants to be because it will take away his major asset, which is to close strongly.

Much is made of where you have to be turning for home. The reason is that most of these horses are basically done running when they get to the turn for home and no one can catch anyone else, making the front end a good place to be. The one thing I know about Keen Ice is that he CAN continue to run for a full mile and a half and if he is within five lengths of the lead turning for home, I'm willing to take my chances.

From a Beyer standpoint, Ice fits the profile of about half the Derby winners. Think Palice Malice two years ago who, like Ice, was eligible for a NW1 other than the day he won the Belmont. Ice will breeze a half mile Tuesday a.m. at Churchill and then get on the plane that afternoon. We will keep you updated as the big day gets closer.

Jerry

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